The Future of Kentucky

New towns in the future of Kentucky

The housing shortage and cost of living were Kentuckians' central concerns in the election. Elected officials had to tackle housing.

The summit

Mayors and judge executives met for a housing summit. The governor and state legislators were invited to the closing session. A few legislators attended, but it was a start. Topics included:

The General Assembly interim taskforce on housing held hearings on developing new towns. The governor appointed a cabinet-level position to coordinate data and planning for new towns. Area Development Corporations added new town feasibility to their agendas. Fiscal courts explored new town adoption in their county planning process. Mayors and judge executives continued to hold housing summits every three years.

All of this happened without much fanfare, as no sites had been identified yet. Some counties, like Leslie, were already working on something like new towns for people displaced by flooding. They were cautiously optimistic about resources and ideas they might glean from other areas. There was no real opposition, but developers paid close attention, curious how they could make a buck.

IMG_1338

The problem

Some facts spurred the cooperative effort for new towns:

Post-WWII, the US built low-density, car-centric, land-intensive suburbs. In the 1950s-1980s, some countries accumulated slums around cities. Others built high-density walkable suburban towns: French banlieue, Soviet microraion, Chinese xaioqu. The new towns had excellent public services, schools, and parks, but the housing would be considered substandard by middle-class Kentuckians.

IMG_0313

Four and five story apartment buildings similar to Soviet Khrushchovka were constructed in Kentucky in the 1970s, particularly by housing authorities, but restricted to low-income residents and often geographically segregated from schools, parks, and shops. In the century of the rubber tire Kentucky built no dense, walkable new towns.

Feasibility study

Kentucky felt its way toward improving on the three middle-income countries that prevented slums. The cabinet, legislative, Area Development Corporation, and fiscal court planning bodies studied the three styles of new town, as bases to iterate on.

Kentucky cities, counties, and public universities held community-engagement forums around oversized maps of the area to locate assets, study what residents liked and didn't like about their areas, and collect residents' aspirations, hopes, and concerns.

This was when opposition began to emerge, particularly from cattle-farmers, large landlords, and some homeowners. They complained of central planning. They also highlighted a central issue: housing can be affordable or a good investment, but not both. A growing stock of housing risks decreasing the value of existing homes, hurting investments of homeowners and large landlords.

The machinery of planning continued to turn. Cabinet offices tasked demographers to study age-stratified actual and projected population movements, engineers to study transportation, electrical, water, sewerage, and storm runoff capacity, bedrock and soil types, flood and tornado risk, and other indexes of places where the smallest investment would yield the best town.

The legislature and fiscal courts studied incentives, cultivated relationships with builders, considered financing, and studied whether regulations needed to be changed or written.

The intersection of infrastructure, demographics, and the regulatory environment suggested six new town locations. Cities and counties considered for the projects competed to land the first, pilot, new town. Once sites were proposed, opposition emerged in earnest.

Planning

IMG_1662

The plan was as follows:

IMG_0329

Political jousting around this definion of a new town hinged on whether this was authoritarian central planning. Supporters of new towns made the compelling point that for years people wanted more, better housing, but the market had been planned by financial speculators, not our democratic system. "If we don't plan it, it will still be planned, just not by or for us." The Global Financial Crisis, and the AI market crash and 2026 energy crisis were what happens when the economy's planned by speculators. "We deserve better. Damn it, we just need somewhere to live."

Financing

Governance

playg

The pilot

The Allen Company got the contract to build roads, EKPC got the contract to build electrical infrastructure, and the usual suspects got other municipal infrastructure contracts. Once ground was broken at the pilot site in Kingston, Madison County, a local community group protested and some propertyholders refused to sell. They could not be forced to sell for building construction, but some lost portions of their property to eminent domain for infrastructure required in the master plan.

Jokes about "socialism with Kentucky characteristics" stopped being funny as construction proceded with contractor cost overruns and extended work delays. Public officials worked overtime, hearing public concerns and explaining as clearly as possible, "Construction is an ecosystem, and ours has been hollowed out over the past generation. Rebuilding our American ability to build is tough, but we're Kentucky." The effect of these speeches varied.

The new jokes were about "building an airplane after it's already took off." Inspectors General didn't have the budget to audit all the overcharging contractors. Some buildings changed hands three times before completion. The industrial park got a new tenant making dimensional lumber, insulation, or structural insulated concrete panels, but also got some robot-AI building startup that looted the public purse and went bankrupt, leaving a vacant highly-specialized fake robot factory. There were labor bottlenecks in some of the trades, and a battle over whether labor in trades had to be union.

Whitney McKnight printed an interview with unnamed sheetrockers and painters alleging cost-cutting malpractice in two apartment buildings. The fiscal court was confronted by a resident and demanded a walkthrough, but was beat to it by a reporter with a hidden camera. The general contractor was fired, and months passed before construction restarted. Save-a-Lot pulled out of the grocery store contract because the population wasn't in place, leaving the fiscal court looking for a new tenant for the grocery store that had been built.

Despite scandal after scandal, buildings were finished. People moved in. Combs and several other local landlords owned more than half the buildings. A big national absentee landlord like Greystar or Cortland owned a quarter of the buildings. One building was a co-op or condos owned by residents.

IMG_0326

What came next

"What went wrong with new towns," was a common think-piece headline as Kingston quietly started to make itself into a decent place. Parks were good and close. The community center's senior and youth programming were good. Telecommuters appreciated the coworking space. Everybody appreciated the affordability. An IGA grocery store opened. A tire shop opened. Residents complained there wasn't enough parking. P. Cab opened a station and Foothills Express began limited, insufficient bus service. A bike and e-bike store opened and closed. The municipal government was elected.

The new town idea fell out of favor at a statewide level even as Kingston thrived. It worked with Richmond, Berea, and London on industrial development and bringing in jobs. Kentucky Magazine ran a piece on "The best (only) new town in Kentucky." It was reprinted in the Lantern. TV news crews used it to pad evening broadcasts. Mayors and judge executives who continued to face housing crunches visited.

The housing summit reconvened. They invited state legislators and the governor.

IMG_0309


This story is released into the public domain. It is only as true as you make it.

  1. Walkability became a big priority after the 2026 energy crisis. At a planning session, a man who lived south of Lawrenceburg said, "We're trapped in our house when gas goes over $6.00 a gallon. Before we start the car we have to do the math if, you know, we'll make enough money to replace what we burn."

  2. New towns or other major residential and manufacturing development require a big up-front investment, and pay off over decades. Pension funds don't need short-term returns. They are a big pile of money that can afford to invest in the next decade instead of the next quarter.

  3. Tying taxation to land instead of improvements means a parking lot pays as much as a 50-unit apartment building. So which gets built? It also discourages railroads from tearing up track to decrease their property tax.

  4. Adjacent parking requirements produce sprawl, unwalkable neighborhoods, density too low for cost-effective public transport, higher costs of construction, and higher summer surface temperatures.

  5. Neighbors who share a stairwell are significantly more likely to know each other than neighbors who share a center hallway. Buildings without center hallways cost less to build, waste less space, and allow apartments to be daylighted and ventilated on both sides of the building. Staircases can be reasonably fireproofed, especially in buildings under 5 stories. This is a zoning issue.

  6. The pattern book saved contractors significant sums of money. They assembled the building blocks of already-permitted studio, 1, 2, and 3-bedroom, and luxury apartments into an already-permitted building envelope. They had less design, architecture, and engineering costs, and permitting was considerably eased. They were expected to pass along savings gained from public investment.